The Oscar Nominations - What I think will happen next week

Yes, the Oscar nominations are this Tuesday, having been delayed due to COVID. I follow awards season pretty intensely, as it helps me get an idea about which Hollywood films are incentivised and therefore what the pallet for forthcoming years shall be.

So these are just my general predictions for the upcoming winners. Do not take my word as concrete proof.

Best Visual Effects

Probable Winner: Tenet

Mainly due to the delays caused by the pandemic, we haven’t seen a lot of effects-heavy blockbusters this year. A surprising number of the competitors in this category use their visual effects not as a crutch, but merely as a small supporting tool. And those blockbusters which have come out, such as Mulan or Wonder Woman 1984, have received a surprising amount of criticism towards their visual effects being so fake and odd-looking.

So far, Tenet has won 12 visual effects prizes from various critics groups due to its unique depiction of time running both forwards and backwards, as well as a strong focus on practical effects and stunts that not as many films do so nowadays. It’s the most obvious competitor inn the category, and there’s not much apparent competition.

Potential nominees: Birds of Prey, Mank, The Midnight Sky, Mulan

Best Sound

Probable winner: Sound of Metal

Nobody really cares about the sound categories at the Oscars, which is why this time they’ve bound them up into only one category. Basically, it’s the best use of sound and sound effects in a film, along with the most diverse and original use of sound design.

As it’s all about wall-to-wall noise followed by contemplative moments of silence, Sound of Metal looks to knock this one out of the park. As it’s won every major sound mixing award so far, it’s a surefire bet in this category. And having seen the film, I think it wholeheartedly deserves it.

Potential nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, News of the World, Tenet

Best Makeup

Probable Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

In what could be the most awkwardly titled film of the year, Viola Davis covers herself in gaudy glitter and eyeliner while her backup band sport gelled period hairstyles and moustaches.

It’s the kind of old-fashioned style makeup that the Oscars really like, and especially considering the fact that there’s no prosthetic makeup films like Star Wars or Star Trek clogging up the category, it looks to be the only film this year that did anything significant with its makeup effects at all. Disappointing, maybe, but still a good choice.

Potential nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Mank, One Night in Miami

Best Costume Design

Probable Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Again, there really isn’t that much competition in the category due to those films which would have had really elaborate costumes and outfits getting pushed back. So unless the Oscars decide to allow Bridgerton to compete or something, I only see one or two other films which can stand up to this one.

Having seen the film, I can say that the production value for the costumes is really good. There’s a good sense of character built into each costume and the way they’re used, along with the outfits looking just really great.

Potential nominees: Ammonite, Emma, Mank, Mulan

Best Production Design (Set design/decoration)

Probable Winner: Mank

Of course helped by the fact that the entire film is framed in pristine black-and-white, Mank’s faithfulness to re-creating the fritz and glamour of the 1930’s is evident in every car, every detail of architecture, every building painstakingly redone in CGI. David Fincher films have already won Oscars for Production Design before, so this is nothing new to him.

If Mank wins, it follows a generally consistent pattern of the Oscars giving technical awards to period dramas and films set in the old “retro” times. I’d love it one day if instead of immediately thinking “let’s do that old-fashioned period drama”, they go for the film that’s the most effective in communicating its tone through the visual design. Promising Young Woman may not be in old L.A., but it’s far better at communicating tension through the claustrophobic and eye-popping production design. It’s a shame that technical categories are now forced into awkward boxes.

Potential nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, One Night in Miami

Best Film Editing

Probable Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Film editing has always been a very vague term that people don’t immediately grasp as a broad subject. Basically, picture a movie like an athlete – you have to “edit” them in their body fat index, appearance, effectiveness, muscle and audience involvement to the extent where they may not win the marathon, but they sure were the most memorable runner. That’s why film editing winners may not even be nominated for Best Picture sometimes (see 2011’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo as an example of this).

So it’s most likely that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the one which’ll take home the film editing Oscar, as it may not be the best, but it has the most impact. It’s the most muscly, the least fatty, and most engrossing runner out of the pack, even if ultimately I don’t think it will win the race for the top prize.

Potential Nominees: Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal

Best Cinematography

Probable Winner: Nomadland

I’ve never particularly liked the cinematography category at the Oscars, as I’ve felt that it always focuses on the most beautiful film rather than the film which is the best in terms of camerawork and using the camera to enhance the feel of a scene. Sure, Roma was arguably the most visually appealing movie of 2018, but the actual camera movement and energy was very lacking, and First Man combined both visual beauty and camera movement to far greater effect in my opinion.

In this case, I feel that Nomadland is the sure-fire winner and a very well-deserved one, because the shots aren’t just used to look utterly gorgeous. They communicate the isolation and desolation of the barren landscape, and yet so often succeeds in also communicating the gorgeous intimacy found by people with nowhere to go.

Potential Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, News of the World, Tenet

Best Original Song

Probable Winner: One Night in Miami (“Speak Now”)

Best Original Song is a tricky one to guess for this year, as there are a shocking number of major competitors and awards from critics societies seem to be given to films at random in this category. Amongst the competitors are comedy songs, traditional weepy songs, slam poetry, weird country music, songs being played backwards and songs which don’t even have any words.

I think that the safest bet is the inspirational, gentle “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami, written and sung by the film’s star Leslie Odom Jr.. Having been the most consistent nominee throughout the season, it looks to be the main one to hedge bets on, even if there’s a good chance it could go another way.

Potential nominees: Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (“Husavik”), Judas and the Black Messiah (“Fight For You”), The Life Ahead (“Io Si”), The Trial of the Chicago 7 (“Hear My Voice”)

Best Original Score

Probable Winner: Soul

Pixar’s Soul was a genuinely great film, with much of the quality derived from the brilliant score from a collaboration of Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste. It’s a mixture of weird and ambient techno with warm and intimate jazz, and the whole movie plays directly into the themes of how music can genuinely change people’s lives and make it better.

To be frank, the one I’d like to see here is The Vast of Night, which was a great movie I saw earlier this year that barely anyone else did. That was a great throwback score to the Twilight Zone days of intrigue and cosmic mystery, but as it’s not from a movie with any marketing behind it, I doubt that it will get nominated.

Potential Nominees: Mank, The Midnight Sky, News of the World, Tenet

Best Animated Film

Probable Winner: Soul

Yeah, this one’s kind of inevitable. Some may be hoping that Irish indie animation WolfWalkers gets a surprise win, as that movie currently sits at a 99% Rotten Tomatoes Score and was ranked the 11th best film of 2020 on Letterboxd. But as Toy Story 4 demonstrated last year, the Oscars will take the big Pixar film over the smaller indie fare like Klaus and WolfWalkers, so I don’t see any particular reason why Soul won’t win.

Potential Nominees: The Croods: A New Age, Onward, Over the Moon, WolfWalkers

Best International Feature Film

Probable Winner: Another Round

Everyone was outraged when Minari was delegated to merely the Foreign Language category at the Golden Globes. The Oscars don’t have the same rules as the Globes, so Minari won’t be competing in this category.

Unlike the last two years, there aren’t a ton of big foreign films that came through this year that really appealed to people. So my safest bet would be the Danish comedy-drama Druk (otherwise known as Another Round), starring Mads Mikkelsen as a high-school teacher who decides to spend his month entirely with an elevated blood alcohol content. With a director that has already been nominated for Oscars before and a star like Mads Mikkelsen, this looks to be a shoo-in.

Potential Nominees: Collective, I’m No Longer Here, La Llorona, Quo Vadis, Aida?

Best Adapted Screenplay

Probable Winner: The Father

Typically adapted screenplay nominations boil down into a very small number of possible nominees, and this year I only identified 7 or 8 that I think really resonated with critics. Out of all of them, The Father (ranked by YouTuber Chris Stuckmann as his #1 film of 2020) seemed to be the most obvious winner.

Following an elderly man with dementia as he slowly loses control, The Father is genuinely astounding in its communication of the lead’s mental state and how dementia can so sharply change a person. It also helps when most of the dialogue is delivered by such accomplished actors as Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman.

Potential Nominees: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami

Best Original Screenplay

Probable Winner: Promising Young Woman

There’s also a good argument that The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win this year, considering it took the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay, but Promising Young Woman looks to be the one that really resonates with the Oscar voters. Written by already well-established Emerald Fennell (Killing Eve showrunner), Promising Young Woman delivers on all aspects of what a screenplay needs: great dialogue, great scene-setting, and great trust of the audience.

Promising Young Woman is bleakly hilarious and so well-done in its character’s motivations, but also has a surprising depth and trust of the audience to interpret what the film tells them. It becomes even better the more you think about it, as you note all the different aspects of the film that subconsciously struck you as you sat glued to the screen in the theatre. It’s really great stuff.

Potential Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress

Probable Winner: Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

I would NEVER have guessed this before this year, but after seeing Bakalova absolutely dominating this award season and critics societies hesitating around other nominees, this seems like the most likely option.

Bakalova’s performance in Borat 2 is hilarious, but there’s also a vulnerability and emotional journey as she travels with the world’s most ludicrous journalist, something few people expected out of a Borat movie. Without her grounding approach to the off-the-rails mockumentary, Borat 2 would have felt so much less fresh.

Potential Nominees: Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman in The Father, Amanda Seyfried in Mank, Youn Yuh-jung in Minari

Best Supporting Actor

Probable Winner: Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah

A latecomer to the party, Judas and the Black Messiah’s release in February blocked it from many of the earlier critic’s awards, meaning it didn’t show up anyone’s stats tables until recently. Since then, however, Kaluuya has been utterly cleaning out the Supporting Actor awards for his fiery portrayal of Black Panther leader Fred Hampton.

This is actually a pretty stacked category, with both Sacha Baron Cohen and Leslie Odom Jr. also playing famous radical historical figures from the same era. On top of that, a surprising amount of support has arrived for character actor Paul Raci, whose gentle and emotional turn as the leader of a deaf community has seen awards piled on top of him. But out of all of these, Kaluuya’s recent win streak (including a Golden Globe) suggests an Oscar coming his way in April.

Potential Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7, Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods, Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami, Paul Raci in Sound of Metal

Best Actress

Probable Winner: Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman

In a category full of weepy dramas and a surprising variety of genres, it seems appropriate that this year’s Best Actress award goes to a performance quite atypical of how the Oscars typically prefer to reward female actors. Mulligan’s cynical, sardonic and bleak performance as a woman in an uncaring world juxtaposes so much with the typical Best Actress crying-drama-stuff material that it stands out even more that way.

The other performances up for grabs include Frances McDormand’s gentle and loving role in Nomadland (which is the next best bet), Vanessa Kirby’s grieving mother in the troublesome Pieces of a Woman, and Viola Davis’s surprisingly short role in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. The 5th one will be an absolute wild card, but I’m giving it to Zendaya in Netflix’s Malcolm and Marie, an annoying-as-hell film that nevertheless boasts Zendaya acting into a frenzied tornado.

Potential nominees: Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand in Nomadland, Zendaya in Malcolm and Marie

Best Actor

Probable winner: Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Even without his tragic death, Chadwick Boseman’s performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom would be a shoo-in for the Best Actor trophy at the Oscars. People will argue for all of time whether or not he actually deserved it, but there’s no denying the sheer charisma and emotional strength in his portrayal of an ambitious jazz singer which pulls the audience in at every moment. Soon, Boseman will get to sit with Heath Ledger and Peter Finch at a restaurant in the afterlife, showing off their achievements which transcended their time in the mortal world.

Other than Boseman, the next most likely is Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal, who communicates his emotional pain so well mostly wordlessly. I also debated whether to put Steven Yeun in Minari on the nominees list, bit then I remembered how the other nominees were the old-timey Oscarphilic actors, so Steven didn’t get a slot (although I should note that amazingly, Yeun’s co-star Youn Yuh-jung disliked his performance in the film despite how many nominations he’s gotten so far.)

Potential Nominees: Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal, Anthony Hopkins in The Father, Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods, Gary Oldman in Mank

Best Director

Probable Winner: Chloé Zhao for Nomadland

Potentially becoming the first Asian woman to win a directing Oscar, Zhao’s win for Nomadland would be brilliantly deserved. Thanks to her perfect direction of the camera, the gentle pace of storytelling and the brilliant way she can invest emotions without characters ever saying a word, Zhao shows talent in Nomadland that many filmmakers can only dream of. I really hope it wins this year.

The other nominees this year are a bit more overt in flexing their directorial muscles than Zhao, going for those really strong shots and cinematographic techniques used by many big-shot directors. The almost hands-off approach Zhao gives to the material is refreshing by comparison, so expect to see her name come up in the list on Tuesday.

Potential nominees: Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman, David Fincher for Mank, Regina King for One Night in Miami, Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Picture

I can’t really say what film will definitely win, but what I will do is make a list of the most likely winners, with 1 being the most likely and 10 being the least out of the most likely. Got it?

1. Nomadland

2. Promising Young Woman

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Minari

5. Mank

6. The Father

7. Sound of Metal

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

9. One Night in Miami

10. Da 5 Bloods

Well, if I turn out to be catastrophically wrong tomorrow, I apologise.

So what do you guys think? Leave your comments quickly, because this goes up the day before the Oscars get announced.